数据
1970年代，赞比亚的公共债务与GDP的比率显着增加，1980年达到GDP的100％以上。到2000年代初期，该比率进一步上升至平均每年GDP的182％。这主要是由于铜价下跌（这是赞比亚的主要出口收入）以及现有债务利率上升所致，而不是任何新债务。首先，在1970年代初，铜和金属加工占赞比亚外汇收入的90％以上。由于洪水泛滥，世界铜价和赞比亚铜产量的下降大大减少了政府收入，这意味着赞比亚不得不借钱来维持该国的运转。其次，由于1979年第二次石油价格震荡，1970年代赞比亚用于基础设施和投资的贷款利率开始上升，这使得赞比亚难以偿还贷款。拖欠会费的积累随后大大增加了其债务水平。
1.1%
经济增长
4.5 / 8
DR的债务透明度指数
106.8%
Gross Debt Position % Of GDP
-5.03%
Budget balance 2021
赞比亚
债务与国内生产总值之比
Zambia’s public debt to GDP ratio decreased significantly from 183.5% of GDP in 2003 to only 19.3% of GDP in 2004. It was the debt relief from the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative which contributed to the sharp decrease of Zambia’s debt level. Zambia completed the HIPC in 2005 along with significant support through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, and also debt cancellation from China, which eased its debt burden.
During the period of 2004 and 2015, the Debt to GDP ratio then remained low, with only around 22.4% of GDP per year. This period of time also witnessed the economic development of Zambia. Its GDP growth between 2000-2014 averaged roughly 6.8% per year.
The economy of Zambia then slowed again to 3.1% per year between 2015 and 2019, due to falling copper prices, declines in agricultural output, and droughts. At the same time, its public debt level increased again to 59% of GDP in 2018. One major reason was that Zambia graduated from being a lower middle-income country in 2011, which limited its access to concessional loans. Therefore, Zambia began to borrow money in the Eurobond market at commercial rates, meaning higher interest and shorter time frames – and therefore overall higher debt repayments.
In 2017, the Ministry of Finance of Zambia introduced a Medium-Term Debt Strategy 2017-2019 to manage the risk exposure in Zambia’s public debt portfolio and guide decision making for the country. The Strategy aimed to restructure the Debt Office to increase debt management capacity and to ensure debt data credibility. The Strategy also intended to follow the IMF-advocated thresholds/ratios to further ensure debt sustainability over the medium to long term.
As a result, Zambia scores in the mid-range of the Debt Transparency Index, with the government providing incomplete debt stocks data or economic reports as well as only drafting the Freedom of Information rules.
赞比亚
收入与预算余额
No Data Found
Zambia currently has 25% of all its external loans owed to China, the same percentage as owed to the private sector (via “Eurobonds”). This makes China Zambia’s largest official bilateral creditor. In 2019, Chinese debt payments accounted for 29% of Zambia’s total debt payment, compared to private sector payments of 25%. According to the China Africa Research Initiative, China provided at least 69 loans – one of the highest numbers among the 20 countries examined in this guide – to Zambia from 2000-2018, totalling almost US$9.7 billion at end-2018. The loans were mainly used in developing transport and power infrastructure. In addition, the amount of loans from China has increased since 2000. Based on the calculation of data from CARI, in 2009, Chinese loans amounted at US$170 million in 2009, but Zambia borrowed US$2.2 billion in 2017 from China.
China cancelled Zambia’s debt in 2001, 2006, and 2007, with the amount of US$40 million, US$211 million and US$8 million, respectively. For comparison, Zambia received US$2 billion in committed debt relief through the HIPC initiative.
中国债务与GDP之比
对中国的外债存量vs. 对其他国家 百万美元
No Data Found
Zambia’s forecast public debt is expected to reach 90% of its GDP in 2020. Zambia needs significant infrastructure finance to meet outstanding basic needs of the population and to cut poverty. Access to water, electricity and internet are particularly behind, and road infrastructure is currently very limited.
Despite these financing needs, the country is identified at a high risk of debt distress by the IMF and the Jubilee debt campaign predicts a debt crisis in the country in 2020, with high debt payments alongside low capacity to mobilize domestic resources due to COVID19 (see below). In terms of creditworthiness, Fitch downgraded Zambia’s credit rating on its foreign currency to ‘RD’ on November 18th 2020, which means “restricted default” and indicates that in Fitch’s opinion, Zambia has experienced a payment default or distressed debt exchange on its financial obligation. Zambia’s credit rating is nevertheless still the fifth strongest amongst the countries analysed in this guide.
外债
No Data Found
No Data Found
Acknowledgements:
and The Development Reimagined Team
Statement on use of data:
55%
Listening Music
47%
Reading
36%
Gardening
25%
Sleeping
60%
Watching Tv
19%
Meditation
COVID-19
No Data Found
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